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affaan-m/ECC/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md
prediction-market-oracle-research
Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.
- Source repository stars
- 234,327
- Declared platforms
- 0
- Static risk flags
- 0
- Last source update
- 2026-07-27
- Source checked
- 2026-07-28
Decision brief
What it does—and where it fits
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Not for
- Tasks that require unconfirmed production actions or broad system permissions.
- Environments where the pinned source and install steps cannot be inspected.
Compatibility matrix
Platform support, with evidence labels
| Platform | Status | Evidence | What to check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Codex | Not declared | No explicit evidence | Portability before use |
| Claude Code | Not declared | No explicit evidence | Portability before use |
| Cursor | Not declared | No explicit evidence | Portability before use |
| Gemini CLI | Not declared | No explicit evidence | Portability before use |
Installation
Inspect first. Install second.
The source command is displayed only when detected. A safe inspection prompt is always available so your agent can explain every action before execution.
Source-detected install commandSource
npx skills add https://github.com/affaan-m/ECC --skill "skills/prediction-market-oracle-research"Safe inspection promptEditorial
Inspect the Agent Skill "prediction-market-oracle-research" from https://github.com/affaan-m/ECC/blob/4e973d3eaf92d97f8d2e2d8abb39d8bdc8711b38/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md at commit 4e973d3eaf92d97f8d2e2d8abb39d8bdc8711b38. List every install step, command, network request, credential, file read/write, external action, and rollback step. Explain whether it fits my task. Do not install or execute anything until I approve.
Workflow
What the source asks the agent to do
- 01
Research Workflow
1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform. 2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues. 3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links. 4. Evaluate signal quality: - liquidity - spread - market age - trader/incentive concentration if kn…
Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links. - 02
Guardrails
Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
Do not treat market prices as objective truth.Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the - 03
Integration Patterns
Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later. - 04
Output Contract
1. decision context 2. market sources 3. signal quality 4. comparison sources 5. integration recommendation 6. caveats
decision contextmarket sourcessignal quality
Permission review
Static risk signals and limitations
No configured static risk pattern was detected
This is not proof of safety. Runtime behavior, indirect dependencies, and hidden external systems are outside the static scan.
Evidence record
Why each signal appears
EvidenceSourceComputedTestedEditorial
| Signal | Value | Evidence type | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality score | 70/100 | Computed | Documentation, specificity, maintenance, and trust rules |
| Repository stars | 234,327 | Source | Repository attention, not individual Skill quality |
| Compatibility | 0 platforms | Source | Declared in the catalog source record |
| Usage guide | automated source guide | Editorial | Generated or reviewed according to the visible evidence level |
Pinned source
Provenance and original SKILL.md
- Repository
- affaan-m/ECC
- Skill path
- skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md
- Commit
- 4e973d3eaf92d97f8d2e2d8abb39d8bdc8711b38
- License
- MIT
- Collected
- 2026-07-28
- Default branch
- main
View the original SKILL.md
Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-securitybefore granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
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